2023 Dryicoran general election

The 2023 Dryicoran general election will take place on Sunday 22 October 2023, to elect all 60 constituency members and 38 county members to the Parlamentti.

The defending party is the SPD, led by incumbent Prime Minister Erno Pulkkinen. From a November 2021 high of an approval rating of 86 %, his party is expected to stay in government.

The right-wing DNP is expected to make strong gains in line with a general Nordic (and to an extent European) trend, expected to overtake the DKP to gain the second-most seats at their expense. As such, many Keskusta voters are expected to switch their vote to the SPD to avoid the DNP going into government with the DKP. The DAP are also expected to gain votes at the DKP's expense.

Format
Dryicoran elections are run on an election where every elector has two votes. The first is for one of 60 national seats, allocated on a nationally proportional basis. The second is for their county electoral district, of which there are 38 seats.

Seat projections
The format of Dryicoran elections mean that voters often go to the polls knowing that parties often form ‘blocs’ to vote in, and that a vote for their party can effectively put another party into government or put a party into government that they don’t want. On the other hand, this can often mean that voting for their preferred candidate ensures that to keep the bloc intact, their party can force another to compromise.

For example, a Green voter will still vote for their preferred party, even though it is clear they will not be able to lead a government. They know, however, that the Greens never compromise with the right, and will always look to the SPD, whose policies are usually Green-friendly, to form a government.

Meanwhile, a DAP voter would usually vote knowing they would usually form a government with the KP, SPD and/or occasionally the DKP. This election, however, the DAP and KP have made clear that they would leave the matter of joining a government with the DKP if it included the DNP until after the election (which was widely interpreted as not wanting to form a government against the SPD if the DNP were involved). Thus, many left-leaning KP voters are expected to give their vote to the DAP in the hope of ensuring the left/centre bloc have more seats than the right.

2023
Date Pollster SPD DKP KP DNP V Other 13 Aug Ipsos 43% 16% 8% 20% 7% 4% 11 Aug Ipsos 44% 17% 8% 18% 7% 4%

Exit polls
Exit polls on the night were conducted jointly between the DLO and DTV. The exit poll came as a surprise, especially due to previous polls suggesting a probable majority for the SPD, and it looked as though the DNP would have the best chance of forming a government, with all resting on the Centre Party (who had been split on whether to prop up a government involving the SPD).