2023 Dryicoran general election

The 2023 Dryicoran general election took place on Sunday 22 October 2023, to elect all 60 constituency members and 38 county members to the Parlamentti.

The SPD, led by incumbent Prime Minister Erno Pulkkinen, defended a majority gained at the last election in January 2020 but, despite high approval ratings before the campaign and praise for his government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, faced controversy over Pulkkinen's change of stance on his 'Citizens' Voice' policy which got him elected in 2014, and general potential voter fatigue. Pulkkinen also said that he would not see out his full fourth term as Prime Minister.

The right-wing DNP made strong gains in line with a general Nordic (and to an extent European) trend and fulfilled expectations of overtaking the DKP to gain the second-most seats at their expense. As such, many Keskusta voters are expected to switch their vote to the SPD to avoid the DNP going into government with the DKP. The DAP gained district seats, but largely took voters from Keskusta instead of the DKP as expected.

After the exit polls came out predicting the SPD to lose its majority, it also predicted the DNP to receive better support than had been predicted. In fact, Keskusta and the DAP outperformed exit poll predictions and took many KPD seats between them. Many, but not all, voters swapped to the DNP in some key districts, and this split much of the right-wing vote, allowing DAP and Keskusta voters who put the SPD as their second choice to gain the seat due to Dryicor's STV system. The KPD had an even worse night than polls predicted, ending up with only seven proportional seats.

When results came clear, the SPD had the best chance of forming a government with the DAP and Keskusta; however exactly how the government will be formed is not yet clear.

Format
Dryicoran elections are run on an election where every elector has one vote that counts twice. The first is for one of 60 national seats, allocated on a nationally proportional basis. The second is for their county electoral district, of which there are 38 seats.

The first vote for the proportional seats are done nationally, so the national result was not clear until every district had declared. Members who take proportional seats are taken from a party list. The district votes are operated similarly to constituencies in Westminster-style parliaments, however candidates are elected using the single transferable vote.

Seat projections
The format of Dryicoran elections mean that voters often go to the polls knowing that parties often form ‘blocks’ to vote in, and that a vote for their party can effectively put another party into government or put a party into government that they don’t want. On the other hand, this can often mean that voting for their preferred candidate ensures that to keep the bloc intact, their party can force another to compromise.

For example, a Green voter will still vote for their preferred party, even though it is clear they will not be able to lead a government (and in this election lost all seats they had to the SPD). They know, however, that the Greens never compromise with the right, and will always look to the SPD, whose policies are usually Green-friendly, to form a government.

Meanwhile, a DAP voter would usually vote knowing they would usually form a government with Keskusta, SPD and/or occasionally the DKP. This election, however, the DAP and KP have made clear that they would leave the matter of joining a government with the DKP if it included the DNP until after the election (which was widely interpreted as not wanting to form a government against the SPD if the DNP were involved). Thus, many left-leaning KP voters were expected to give their vote to the DAP in the hope of ensuring the left/centre bloc have more seats than the right, however in practice many voters gave their vote directly to the SPD.

2023
Date Pollster SPD DKP KP DNP V Other 13 Aug Ipsos 43% 16% 8% 20% 7% 4% 11 Aug Ipsos 44% 17% 8% 18% 7% 4%

Exit polls
Exit polls on the night were conducted jointly between the DLO and DTV. The exit poll came as a surprise, especially due to previous polls suggesting a possible majority for the SPD, and it looked as though the DNP would have the best chance of forming a government, with all resting on the Centre Party (who had been split on whether to prop up a government involving the SPD). The exit polls were a fair indicator,